Caught between conviction and caution, Ethereum tests a key supply wall.
- Ethereum is picking up steam again, making a run at the key $2.5k resistance level. BlackRock sold off $18.4 million worth of ETH, which has raised some eyebrows.
After nearly two weeks of relentless selling pressure on Ethereum [ETH], a sharp 8.27% green candle has emerged, at press time, clawing back nearly 21% of those losses in just one move.
On closer look, this resembles a textbook “reset and rebound” setup, where a cooldown offered patient investors a shot at discounted supply, especially with macro FUD starting to ease off.
Yet, the line between a relief rally and a breakout could be razor-thin. According to AMBCrypto, which side Ethereum lands on may well dictate its directional bias heading into Q3.
Ethereum approaches a heavy supply zone
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Yet again, Ethereum’s two-week decline has been noticeably steeper than [BTC], with ETH shedding 26% from its $2,878 mid-June peak, more than double BTC’s 10.89% drop. And this wasn’t just a fluke.
While Bitcoin showed relative resilience, Ethereum’s Short-Term Holder (STH) NUPL plunged into the capitulation zone right as ETH broke below the $2.5k mark, after nearly a month of tightly range-bound trading around that level.
This was further confirmed by a surge in realized losses, suggesting that STHs began unwinding their positions in weakness.
Now, with ETH climbing back toward that same $2.5k zone, these holders may view the rally as a break-even escape, right as Ethereum re-enters a high-density cost basis cluster, as highlighted by the chart below.
Source: Glassnode
The yellow and orange bands highlight where most Ethereum holders bought their supply, clustering heavily around this zone.
Numerous entries sat specifically in the $2.4k to $2.6k range, making it one of the most crowded and critical areas to watch as ETH approaches resistance.
If ETH pushes through this band with strength, it could clear the way for further upside. But if weak hands step in to exit at breakeven, it could turn into a near-term ceiling.
ETH faces a true test of hodler conviction
As Ethereum climbs into a key cost basis cluster, whether holders stay confident in a continued move higher could shape how Q3 plays out.
Despite a solid run through Q1 and Q2, ETH still hasn’t managed to reclaim the $3k level, a psychological barrier that might push some investors to sell early, especially with macro risks still lingering.
That’s why the recent $100 million in ETF inflows feels encouraging, as it shows fresh capital is still flowing in.
Pair that with a 9.3% jump in Open Interest and a 61% long bias on Binance ETH perps, and clearly, the market’s leaning bullish.
Source: CoinGlass
But is this conviction? Or are we looking at blind optimism, a setup for another volatility-driven shakeout just as ETH nears resistance?
Well, BlackRock’s recent $18.4 million sell-off adds a layer of caution. Smart money seems to be dialing back, too.
So, unless Ethereum can break through that $2.4k– $2.6k supply wall with strength, the idea of a clean run to $3k in Q3 might be a stretch for now.
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