Retail may be selling, but whales and long-term holders are tightening the float.
- ETF Netflows jumped by 128K BTC in 30 days, marking the strongest institutional inflow since early 2024. Declining short-term HODL activity and whale-sized transfers point to a structural bullish setup.
Bitcoin [BTC] ETF Netflows surged by 128,000 BTC in 30 days, marking the largest institutional accumulation wave since early 2024.
On top of that, Binance whale deposits jumped from $2.3 billion to $4.59 billion in a single day.
This synchronized surge reflects growing confidence among high-net-worth entities, who appear to be positioning early for a major price expansion.
Clearly, large holders aren’t waiting—they’re already exposed to a macro-led rally.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin scarcity intensifies
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BTC’s Stock-to-Flow ratio surged to 2.12 million, reflecting a 133.34% increase and reinforcing the asset’s scarcity narrative.
New supply is lagging far behind circulating stock, signaling strong accumulation behavior. Therefore, the shift aligns with long-horizon investment strategies by institutional players seeking asymmetric upside.
Historically, such drastic rises in the ratio have typically preceded major bull runs driven by supply shocks.
Source: CryptoQuant
Has the balance of power shifted?
Transaction Count by Size showed a steep decline across lower-value bands, with the $1–$10 tier down 38.26%.
Meanwhile, the $1M–$10M band grew by 5.35%, confirming that whales have taken control of market flow. Naturally, this shift suggests a structural pivot—less noise, more conviction from deep-pocketed players.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Overheating or speculative conviction?
The Bitcoin NVT ratio skyrocketed to 824, a level rarely seen in previous cycles. This signals that market cap is outpacing transaction throughput, a potential sign of short-term overvaluation.
However, seen alongside ETF inflows and whale positioning, the spike likely reflects strategic holding, not speculative euphoria.
So, while it’s elevated, this may point to delayed distribution, not immediate downside.
Source: Santiment
Are short-term holders giving up as long-term conviction takes over?
The 0–1 day Realized Cap HODL Wave has plunged to 0.187%, its lowest reading in weeks.
This drop reveals that short-term holders are retreating, with fewer participants engaging in quick sell-offs.
Instead, BTC appears increasingly held by long-term believers, reinforcing the scarcity dynamic already echoed in ETF and S/F data. As quick flips vanish, the market tilts toward structural strength.
Source: Santiment
Bottom line
ETFs and whales appear to be preparing for liftoff.
The alignment of deep-pocket inflows, shrinking retail presence, rising scarcity, and long-term holding behavior reflects strategic conviction, not short-term speculation.
While metrics like NVT suggest temporary overheating, they are offset by clear signs of supply tightening.
As long as these structural dynamics persist, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum remains well-supported—and institutional capital could be the catalyst that sustains the rally.
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