Where do Bitcoin’s rally odds stand right now?
- Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation underlined cautious optimism among long-term holders Could this quiet stacking phase be the calm before the next major breakout?
Bitcoin [BTC], at press time, seemed to be stuck in a “neutral” zone, not falling apart, but not breaking out either. And the mood? Pretty fragile. The market has been leaning on assumptions – Maybe the Fed eases up, maybe geopolitical tensions fade. All very “maybe.”
Alongside that, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) spiked 3.4%, signaling that fresh leverage may be creeping back in. It’s a bold move, especially considering that June alone saw two major long liquidations that derailed any real recovery attempts.
But what if this new positioning isn’t just blind speculation? A trader with a perfect 29-for-29 trade record just opened a $29 million long on BTC. Could they be seeing something the rest of the market hasn’t priced in yet?
Fed’s subtle shift sparks ‘cautious optimism’
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We’re halfway through 2025, and the Fed hasn’t cut rates once yet.
As AMBCrypto highlighted, the recent FOMC meeting stuck to a no-cut stance, just as the markets priced in. This resulted in minimal volatility, with BTC slipping only 0.24% that day.
And yet, Jerome Powell’s remarks carried a subtle but important message. The Fed remains open to cutting rates later this year. That’s a key signal for traders and investors alike.
Look back to Q4 2024. Bitcoin surged past $100k, hitting $108k in December, before briefly dipping to $89k. BTC bounced back strong though, rallying by 22% to hit a new high of $109k in January.
This rally wasn’t random. Instead, it closely tracked the Fed’s three back-to-back rate cuts during that period. Those cuts injected liquidity and fueled risk-on sentiment, powering Bitcoin’s breakout on the charts.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Now, the market may be eyeing a repeat scenario. The anticipation of potential easing in H2 2025 may be keeping Bitcoin’s current sideways action healthy.
On-chain inflows seemed to reinforce this view, signaling that Bitcoin could be entering one of the most significant accumulation phases on record – Setting a strong foundation for the next major rally.
Bitcoin’s consolidation backed by strong holder demand
A new Glassnode report spotlighted a clear disconnect between Bitcoin’s price and what has been happening on-chain. Since early 2025, daily transactions have cooled off, down to 320k–500k from a 734k peak in 2024.
Still, value transfer is still going strong. Bitcoin’s network has been moving about $7.5 billion a day, with each transaction averaging $36.2k – A sign that big players are staying active.
In fact, transactions over $100k make up a massive 89% of the total volume, way up from 66% in late 2022. On the contrary, smaller transfers may be fading fast.
Source: Glassnode
That mix of low transaction counts and high volumes makes it pretty clear – Big players are running the show on-chain. To top it off, CryptoQuant data highlighted that BTC inflows to Binance from both whales and retail might be at cyclical lows.
Together, these trends may suggest that smart money is either accumulating or HODLing through the volatility, “buying into the fear” as rate cut expectations build.
Therefore, $110k could be the beginning, not the top of Bitcoin’s 2025 breakout.
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